Robert here. Although not all US practices in HK / China are currently very busy, many have seen deal flow pick up dramatically in the past couple of months. The outlook is good for most US practices to stay fairly busy through the end of this year and beyond. Some groups are becoming understaffed. The China economy is on a full-fledged rebound, notwithstanding the drop in exports. It is a domestic consumer driven recovery that has taken much of the world by surprise. The Shanghai Index has risen already about 90% this year and had doubled since its November ’08 low.
This is about the point in this Kinney-sponsored post where you probably expect me to go on and on about all the hiring that is about to happen, to call Kinney and an apartment broker in China, right? But I can’t quite take you on apartment hunting trips to Asia, because the lateral hiring, although it has picked up from the dead period earlier this year (we continue to be put on more attorney searches in Asia, especially in HK / China each week), is just not there for most junior to mid-level US associate candidates. Hiring likely won’t be even close to what we started in 2007 to consider “normal” until at least late ’09 to early ’10.
Why? Here are some factors that are coming into play:
– Many US firms are understandably very concerned about their profit per partner numbers for ’09. It has obviously been a brutal 18 months in the US economy and of course we all know that US biglaw has been very negatively affected. One substantial factor in successful senior partner recruiting and partner retention is of course PEP numbers. Unfortunately, layoffs, de-equitizing partners, and hiring freezes are effective in propping up PEP and in such a climate it is not easy for even very busy US partners in Asia to simply get clearance for all the associate hires they want / need. At some US firms there is a lot of pressure for continued lay offs in the fall, further making new lateral hires overseas a complex issue.
– While US and British firms wait for their home economies to return to normalcy, they do of course have the capacity to temporarily and permanently transfer associates from US and London to Asia. US partners in Asia of course strongly prefer to bring on board associates that are clearly invested in the region for the long-term, but there will continue to be secondments and “strongly recommended” transfers, especially to HK / China, especially among 1st to 3rd year associates.
– The lateral hiring market in Asia remains very overcrowded with very impressive US associates lateral candidates. US firms and US practices of British firms are quite confident, as they should be, that at least for the next few months they will have a strong roster of candidates to choose from when they do hire. Further, most US partners that need to hire in Asia have already been in informational discussions with several candidates by the time they look to hire and thus do not need to open a search to fill an opening.
– Keep in mind that a couple of months of very busy deal flow at many, but not all, US practices in HK / China does not put much stress on an office / group. When / if this substantially increased deal flow continues for 5+ months, it will be much more urgent for understaffed groups to add new hires (even at some firms that have strong hiring freeze, due to US and Western Europe economy). From September ’08 to just recently, many of these now very busy HK / China groups were quite overstaffed, with little work coming in.
– Further dampening any renewed enthusiasm for Asia that might otherwise develop among international lawfirm management are the ubiquitous predictions by economic experts that the Shanghai and HK stock indexes are overvalued and perhaps in a bubble. In reality, while a healthy correction to those stock indexes may be in the offing later this year, there is not a major bubble. But there is some chatter among a small minority of economists out there that the ongoing increase in lending in China now (which is not tied to toxic assets) is similar to the recent and infamous over-lending in the West (which was tied to toxic assets). Some of these same doomsdayers were also predicting that China’s economy would collapse without the recent strong boom time export market to US, but China’s domestic market has proven those “experts” wrong. In any event, US and UK firm home office management has these reasons to take a cautious approach to hiring in HK / China and Asia, at least for some months, even as some of their US practice groups in Asia may become understaffed.
As always, our Kinney Asia team will be working to keep you informed on the US associate lateral market in the Asia markets. Keep in mind that it is more complex than simply a substantial rise in deal flow equals hiring across the board.
Here are some of our more pressing openings:
*PE / M&A – 3 to 5 years – Shanghai (Mandarin not required, but commitment to SHG is)
-new hire likely to come from NYC market.
*PE / M&A in-house (PE fund) – 6 to 10 years experience – Hong Kong (Mandarin prefered but not required)
-new hire likely to come from NYC or Hong Kong
*corporate in-house (international chemicals and materials company) – 15+ years of experience – Hong Kong
-new hire likely to come from HK / China, will be most senior legal officer of company in Asia Pacific region
*PE / M&A – partner level – Hong Kong
-new hire likely to come from Asia market
*fund formation – partner level – Hong Kong
-new hire likely to come from Hong Kong or NYC
*M&A – class of ’08 (or ’09 that has been deferred) – Tokyo – native Japanese required
-new hire likely to come from US markets
*M&A – 4+ years – Tokyo – Japanese required
-new hire likely to come from NYC or Tokyo market
*Cap Markets / M&A mis – 3 to 5 years – Hong Kong (Mandarin prefered but native English required)
-new hire likely to come from NYC or HK
*Cap Markets – 5 to 10 years – Hong Kong (native Mandarin required)
-new hire likely to come from HK / China or NYC
*Cap markets / M&A – 1 to 3 years – Hong Kong (Korean required)
-new hire likely to come from HK / China or NYC
*M&A – 4 to 7 years – Hong Kong (native Mandarin required)
-new hire likely to come from NYC or HK
*Finance – 2 to 5 years – Hong Kong (native Korean required)
-new hire likely to come from NYC
*PE / M&A – 2 to 5 years – Beijing (Mandarin required)
-new hire likely to come from NYC
*Project Finance – 2 to 5 years – Tokyo (Korean required)
-new hire likely to come from NYC
Related Posts:
- None Found